Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds, Choice, Prediction: Expert Divisional Round Pick

Jaguars vs Chiefs Odds

For the second time this season, we look for a choice between Jaguars vs. Chiefs as Andy Reid faces his former protege Doug Pederson.

Pederson impressively transformed the Jaguars in his first year at the helm in Jacksonville, using many of Reid’s concepts and tendencies in the process.

But while the Jaguars have been a good story, going into Arrowhead Stadium and coming out with a win is no easy task. When these teams played earlier this season, the Chiefs thoroughly dominated.

The Chiefs won by a final score of 27-17, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Jacksonville punted on five of the first six drives and the Chiefs led 20-0 just before halftime.

It could have been worse without a fumble from Isiah Pacheco in the red zone. Jacksonville was able to score a touchdown just before halftime and a halftime field goal to close the deficit, but it never felt like the game was in jeopardy for the Chiefs.

What we did see was Kansas City’s passing offense dice Jacksonville’s secondary without much resistance. When the Chiefs went airborne, especially in the first half, there wasn’t much of a chance for the Jags to hold back Patrick Mahomes.

There’s a good chance we’ll see a replay of Mahomes and his cast of receivers in the first NFL Divisional Round playoff game of the weekend.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Enable the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jaguars and Chiefs match statistically:

Jaguars vs Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA 9 17
Pass DVOA 6 20
Urgent DVOA 20 15
Overall DVOA 1 26
Pass DVOA 1 30
Urgent DVOA 9 11

One problem Jacksonville had against KC the first time around was reaching Patrick Mahomes.

The Jags were able to put up 19 individual pressures and 10% of their pressures were unblocked, according to PFF, but they couldn’t take down Mahomes, as they failed to register a single sack. This led to numerous wide-open throwing lanes for Mahomes to hit Kelce and then newly acquired Kadarius Toney.

Have your Jaguars vs. Choose Chiefs directly at FanDuel

In his second game with the Chiefs, Toney saw five goals that resulted in four catches, 57 yards and a touchdown, in addition to two rushes for 33 rushing yards. Unfortunately, Toney was injured the following week and was sidelined for a month before returning in late December.

Kansas City considers Toney an explosive player who can be used to catch screen passes, make transfers or run routes down the field. Its usage is reminiscent of Tyreek Hill, or Mecole Hardman more recently. Hardman will be out again this week, so Toney should be the main beneficiary and see a lot of opportunities.

The Chiefs have a big advantage in the trenches. According to the PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, Kansas City has the largest passing advantage up front and the second largest advantage in the rushing game.

In my opinion, Kadarius Toney’s current rules greatly underestimate his likely involvement in Kansas City’s game plan.

Of course there are risks involved in betting on Toney props. You never know if his touches come from the ground game or the passing game, but I think he gets enough of both to make his overs a safe game.

If you’re looking for another way to stake this game, Travis Kelce overs are also a strong option.

As we saw against the Chargers, Jacksonville struggles to cover the middle of the field. The Jaguars had a league-lowest 38.1 PFF coverage against tight ends, while Kelce was the highest-rated TE at 91.1. Patrick Mahomes has a passing grade of 92.4 (best in NFL) when targeting line or slot players; Jacksonville is 31st by the same statistic.

Kelce should see plenty of snaps in his usual lineup and I expect him to have another productive game. He accounted for 81 yards and a touchdown on his six receptions in the first Jags-Chiefs game.

Still, I prefer Toney since Kelce is already a well known product and the lines for his props reflect that. You can play one or roll the dice with the same game parlay and try to capitalize a big game for the Chiefs passing attack.

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